What's On The Horizon
By Ed Duncan, Consultant, SBSC, MCSE, MCSA
Hello. Today's article should bring a smile to the inner geeks in all of us, because I am going to give you a sneak peek into what technology improvements are currently being worked on, and what we can expect to see in the near future. The smart people at Intel's Technology and Research division are the source of much of the information I'm sharing today, and their "To Do" list is quite impressive.
To begin with, let's look at the processor, the "brain" of a computer. Gordon Moore one of Intel's cofounders predicted in 1965 that the number of transistors on a chip will double about every 2 years. So far his prediction is holding true. It even has a name called "Moore's Law". This growth in transistors increases the power of microprocessors exponentially, which means computers run faster and are able to perform more complex operations. Let's look back 10 years ago. A standard pc back then was built with a Pentium II processor which had 7.2 million transistors. Today a Quad-Core Intel Core 2 processor has 820 million transistors. What's in the future? Intel has already developed the first 2 billion transistor processor called Tukwila. There's been no formal announcement about when we can expect to see desktops or servers shipped with the new processor, but some analysts are predicting possibly near the end of 2010.
You would think the growth in the number of transistors would force the processor design to become bigger, draw more power, and generate more heat, but in fact the opposite is occurring. Processors are getting smaller, utilizing power more efficiently, and generating less heat. Thus pc's, laptops, and other mobile devices will continue to be built smaller, lighter, and run faster.
Battery life continues to garner the biggest complaint from consumers regarding their mobile devices. On an average laptop you can get about 2-3 hrs usage before needing to recharge. Most mobile phones average about a day or 2 of usage before needing a recharge. Researchers are looking at new ways to extend battery life by developing hardware that is smart enough to turn off subsystems when they are not being used. They are also looking at different ways to change how devices draw power. When a device is idle or in a low activity state it should not draw as much power as when it is in a fully active state. Keep an eye out for new batteries that will give our devices as much as double the usage that current batteries give us between recharges.
Security is another hot item. With improvements in wireless technology, the threat to user privacy is a growing concern. Even President Obama was initially told that he could not keep his Blackberry when he was elected because of the risk to national security should it become compromised. The President's Blackberry has since been hardened to prevent snooping and unauthorized access. While we can't expect the same level of protection that the President receives on our mobile devices anytime soon, researchers are working on new forms of encryption that will make it more difficult for anyone attempting to intercept any transmissions sent over the air, or access the data stored on the device in the event it is stolen.
As computer technology becomes more complex, the interoperability will become simpler for the average person to use. Researchers are looking at ways to make computers less intimidating to those that are not technically inclined. How would you like to buy a computer that configures itself? You take it out the box, plug it in, and it discovers your wireless and Bluetooth peripherals, including your monitor and printer. Your Internet connection and other networked computers in your home or office network will be detected as well. Computers will also have the ability to "self-heal". Researchers are looking at ways to build technology that will allow computers to repair themselves when errors occur, and take steps to improve performance when system checks determine that it has degraded.
Look for further changes in the way we interact with media. Newspapers are rapidly being replaced by the Internet as the primary outlet for news delivery. Media rich content sites like Hulu will continue to see strong growth, however broadband will not be sufficient to handle the projected traffic, especially when one sends data "upstream". Downloading content is much faster than uploading, but with sites like YouTube where the number of content being uploaded grows everyday, it will become necessary for faster upload speeds. Look for further improvements in wireless technology to fill in the gaps we currently have with broadband.
Finally look for mobile devices that will be in tune with you. These devices will have sensors that can monitor your health and mental state. It will be like carrying around your own personal trainer with life management applications that will make suggestions, play your favorite tunes, and anticipate your needs based on your surroundings.